Bracket analysis: Where does Drake belong if it wins the Valley? Plus, the truth hurts for Iowa, ISU

For weeks now, we've attacked this year's NCAA Tournament bracket from the lens of Iowa and Iowa State's success and their potential routes to a sweetheart draw in Des Moines.

But reality began to sink in somewhat last week when going through the exercise of assigning the country's best teams to those eight first- and second-round sites.

Much of this season's elite resides in the upper Midwest and the Rust Belt. Many squads are fighting for the same real estate. The Hawkeyes and Cyclones were already behind the relative 8-ball, and they both suffered painful home losses Tuesday (more on these later).

Look, neither team is in any danger of falling onto the bubble; it's been fine to think big. However, when doing so, what was already a slim scenario has now dwindled to a pipe dream, barring a truly spectacular run to Selection Sunday.

What, then, to discuss this week? Well, it's probably past time to talk about Drake.

Hang on ... Drake, you say? Yes, the Bulldogs and first-year coach Darian DeVries are already a Cinderella story. On paper, this appeared to be a slapdash effort meant to survive the season. Then their primary facilitator was lost for the year early in the Missouri Valley Conference campaign.

All the private school has done is race to 21 wins and a share of the league lead with reigning Final Four participant Loyola-Chicago. With three regular-season games remaining before Arch Madness in St. Louis, the question anymore isn't even: Why can't Drake win the Valley?

The better one: What happens if they do?

You're not going to see any of the mainstream bracket gurus throwing Drake into their 68-team projections just yet. To be fair, the Ramblers have more than the Sister Jean media machine on their side, as they've held the top spot most of the season and have beaten the Bulldogs in both meetings. 

That said, some of the number-crunchers are making the leap. The Bracket Matrix website, which tracks all 123 of what it deems to be reputable tournament projections, says Drake (21-7 overall, 10-5 Valley) is in 31 mocks as of Thursday morning. Loyola (17-11, 10-5) leads the way with 78 appearances, and Missouri State (15-13, 9-6) takes the bronze with 13. (Two notes here: There are no signs of fourth-place Northern Iowa sneaking into any brackets yet, and I haven't found the rogue bracketologist who's accidentally leaving the Valley out entirely.)

In those 31 brackets, Drake is primarily slotted as a No. 15 seed (18 times), with 12 instances as a No. 14 seed and one kiss up to a No. 13.

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Looking at the NCAA's NET rankings, I'd say that's a relatively fair placement. The Bulldogs are No. 136 in the latest NET release, second in the Valley behind Loyola (No. 125). They gave Iowa State (NET 14) a scare at the final Hy-Vee Classic, and they have a Quadrant 2 win over New Mexico State (NET 58) from the Las Vegas Classic. Just one loss (at home to Illinois State on Jan. 30) is in Quadrant 4 territory.

Remember, too, that the Valley is absolutely a one-bid league this year, and much of the conference sports unimpressive resumes. The Panthers, for example, are two games below .500 at 13-15 but sit fourth in the league for now. Ken Pomeroy's conference power rankings have the Valley No. 17 out of 32 Division I conferences.

Put it all together, and Drake's average seed of 14.55 in the brackets in which it appears seems about right. A No. 15 seed probably would be a little unfair, considering the Bulldogs would likely have at least 25 wins by that time. And, given the perceived disparity between the projected No. 2 seeds (Kentucky, Michigan State, Michigan, North Carolina) and the No. 3s (Kansas, Houston, Marquette, Purdue), a No. 14 seed would come with a measurable increase in the hope for an upset.

One last fun tidbit: Almost all the mainstream bracket guys have been slotting Loyola as a No. 15 seed, and in Des Moines, to boot, against a Michigan or Michigan State. It's too bad that this is Drake's turn to be hosting the first-weekend festivities at Wells Fargo Arena (a site host cannot have its team playing at the same location). Wouldn't that happy accident have been something?

The conclusion here, though, is that DeVries and his staff should be lauded that I've spent several hundred words talking about the Bulldogs this time of year at all. If he's not the Valley's coach of the year, there needs to be a re-vote. 

NET gains and losses

It was a truth-hurts kind of Tuesday for the home-state hopes of Iowa State and Iowa.

Barring a 2018 Michigan-esque hot streak to zoom up the rankings, or such a cold spell that either of these teams drops all the way to the No. 7 line like I hypothesized weeks ago, Des Moines ain't happening. No way, no how.

(And, for reasons too complicated to elaborate, based on who's probably going to make it to Des Moines, Iowa wouldn't get that No. 7 Des Moines placement, anyway, because of intra-conference tournament scheduling rules).

So, the numbers themselves. What do they say now?

Remarkably, Iowa State (19-7, 8-5 Big 12 Conference, NET 14) is still essentially treading water in spite of two straight Hilton Coliseum setbacks. Such treatment is underscored by the perceived strength of the Big 12, in which only losing to West Virginia can really harm you.

At the Mountaineers on March 6 and home against Oklahoma on Monday are the two remaining games that can do significant damage to the Cyclones' resume. Otherwise, we've had no movement between the quadrants on other results.

Iowa (20-6, 9-6 Big Ten Conference, NET 29) has not been as fortunate. And frankly, if you take the past four games into account, the eye test says the Hawkeyes are beyond lucky to be 3-1 in that Indiana, Northwestern, Rutgers and Maryland stretch. There's a seemingly decent case for Jordan Bohannon getting fouled in Tuesday's final seconds, but Iowa also stole the Northwestern game. And having to trade punches with Rutgers for 40 minutes and watch a Twilight Zone final 20 seconds unfold isn't exactly something to strut about.

So, save the gripes and the snide comments about winning games and dropping in the polls. Iowa had been playing with fire and not playing all that well. The result was deserved. And it's all about March now, anyway.

To that end, the Hawkeyes lost a Q1 victory (at Northwestern, Jan. 9), probably for good. The Wildcats are down to 85th in the NET. Penn State, despite just 10 wins to its credit, is inexplicably 63rd in the rankings, so that January road win seems pretty safe to stay in Q1 the rest of the way.

So Iowa is 4-6 in such high-leverage games this season. The best news is that there are no bad losses for this team, which will serve it well some seeding placement time. The Michigan and Iowa State wins are really good; the other Q1 wins are misleading. In essence, this feels like a No. 7 seed resume that will likely get a bump up a line because of that "good losses" factor.

IOWA STATE CYCLONES

(All rankings and projections as of Thursday)

NCAA NET: No. 14

Ken Pomeroy: No. 13, 22-9 projected overall record

Jeff Sagarin: No. 13

ESPN BPI: No. 14

USA TODAY Sports projection: West Region, No. 4 seed, vs. UC-Irvine in San Jose, California

ESPN projection: South Region, No. 4 seed, vs. Yale in San Jose

CBS Sports projection: West Region, No. 5 seed, vs. Play-in Winner in Hartford, Connecticut

Bracketville projection (the top-rated metric with a history of 10-plus years predicting brackets, according to the Bracket Matrix): East Region, No. 5 seed, vs. Belmont in Jacksonville, Florida

IOWA HAWKEYES

NCAA NET: No. 29

Ken Pomeroy: No. 29, 23-8 projected overall record

Jeff Sagarin: No. 32

ESPN BPI: No. 31

USA TODAY Sports projection: Midwest Region, No. 6 seed, vs. Temple in Tulsa, Oklahoma

ESPN projection: West Region, No. 6 seed, vs. VCU in Tulsa

CBS Sports projection: South Region, No. 4 seed, vs. UC-Irvine in San Jose

Bracketville projection: Midwest Region, No. 6 seed, vs. Arizona State in Tulsa

Sports reporter and producer Danny Lawhon has been at the Register since 2012, working in a variety of sports and news capacities. He writes on the evolving online sports conversation in Iowa and contributes to the editing and social media operation. Follow Danny on Twitter @DannyLawhon.